By 2019 spending on robotics will almost double worldwide.
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Drastic growth
A recent study by the International Data Corporation predicts that worldwide spending on robotics and related services will reach $135.4 billion in 2019, up from $71 billion in 2015. The IDC forecasts industry growth at a compound annual rate of 17%.
In other words: in less than four years the industry will almost double in size, with the service component eventually overtaking manufacturing.
Robots displacing jobs
“There is an increasing adoption of robotics in sectors like electronics, retail, healthcare, logistics, agriculture, services, education, and government, says Dr. Jing Bing Zhang, Research Director, Robotics at IDC Manufacturing Insights.
According to Geoff Colvin, author of Humans are Underrated, advances in technology are therefore – for the first time in history – displacing more jobs than it is creating.
Potential problems
This development will potentially pose significant problems for policy makers worldwide.
Diminished spending powers across large populations will result in highly volatile global markets, eating into the profits generated by the use of robots in the first place.
What would be the point of robots if we cannot enjoy the fruits of their labour?
Potential solutions
To mitigate the issues posed by the rise of robots, Colvin asks what humans can do that robots can’t. His answer is that we need to focus on what he calls the “deep human factors” – our ability to interact with empathy, our ability to work together in groups, our ability to tell stories, to form relationships.
“The people who are really excellent at those deeply human skills are going to be the most valuable people in this world,” Colvin says.
Working with the Humans
But in the end maybe a robot will be the best at these deeply human skills as well.
If we are to believe IBMs super-computer Watson, a so-called cognitive system, it can now reason and learn with humans. And with vastly superior computing power, it will, over time, be able to outdo humans at being humans, or so it seems.
Just watch how Watson shows off its superior human-sensitive skills to a support-group of out-dated robots:
The tipping point
“Robotics as a technology has really reached its tipping point,” says John Santagate at the IDC. “Robotics capabilities continue to expand while increasing investment in robot development is driving competition and helping to bring down the costs.”
But what this tipping point entails is not so clear. What is the end-game envisioned by those who manufacture robots and provide their related services?
Asked if robots will eventually make humans irrelevant Colvin still maintains that “for sound economic reasons, we won’t want technology to do that. We are hardwired from our evolutionary past to value human relationships, and as a practical matter we must use those relationships to solve the most important human problems.”
“Make no mistake,” he says – “technology is profoundly reordering the value of human skills, and many people will continue to lose their jobs to technology.”
Utopia in the making?
If we are wise maybe we will be able to use our robot-making-skills to finally free ourselves from the need to work?
If anything, that would seem to be the promise of a robotised future. If all we need for our survival is produced and maintained by robots, we can dedicate ourselves even more deeply to Colvin’s essential human factors.
Perhaps we would solve the mystery of life? Create works of art to rival those of nature? Finally take up time-travel? Or simply live the ultimate utopian dream of love and peace?
I’d like to see the robot dreaming up that idea.
Want to find out more about how robots are changing our world? Make sure you sign up to the Robots at Work event in March and join your peers for a lively debate on the matter.