I recently saw BBC’s 2011 documentary about Steve Jobs on Netflix. Not having seen the new Danny Boyle and Aaron Sorkin film, but wanting to, this was sort of my starter dish. (I confess: I haven’t read the official Isaacson biography, though I have two copies).
I have no opinion on who Steve Jobs was, whether he was a good or a bad man, or both – but what struck me, watching the documentary, is that Apple will probably start facing a downwards turn soon, if they haven’t already, and the following is my reasoning.
THE DANGER IS OVERREACH AND CONSUMER FATIGUE. HOW MANY OF LIFE’S THINGS CAN AND SHOULD HAVE AN i IN FRONT?
No one stays on top forever
This is a simple and probably very obvious point, but all hegemonies come to an end. Look at Rome, the British Empire, Microsoft. In the case of Apple, the golden age is now and has lasted since the first iMac came in 1998. But if we are to believe a recent article in The Verge Apple has now lost its sense of design, which has been its biggest selling point since becoming everyone’s favourite tech company.
The price to pay
The key to Apple’s financial success has been the ability to marry exquisite design and user experience with a prize-tag the size of a monthly pay-check. But if design and ‘lovability’ is starting to slip away, so might people’s willingness to pay the very premium prices. And if Apple start reducing prizes (which seems very unlikely), they will just be another tech company.
Consumer indifference
The golden age of Apple has relied on a sure supply of consumer ‘love’. People have slept outside Apple stores to get their latest version of the iPhone or any other product. From the company’s point of view the worst that could happen now is that people start feeling indifferent towards Apple products.
But that might just be happening. The incessant upgrade cycles (driven by Apple themselves) has forced bad design on people, and that hasn’t gone unnoticed. The consumer web is already full of bad reviews for the latest iPad pro, the latest iPhone 6 battery case, the new OS X El Capitan.
Overreaching
Apple’s recent announcement that it will start making cars can either be seen as a healthy push to diversify, or: as a desperate move to make sure it will stay in business after its consumer tech products have lost their way in a sea of gadgets.
In either case, the danger is overreach. And again, consumer fatigue. How many of life’s things can and should have an i in front? Is iLife coming soon?
Saved by the switching cost
What in the end might save Apple is that people are so locked-in to their products and services that the switching cost has become too great. Now that many of us get our music, film and photo books through Apple, and have invested so much of our history, time and money into these interfaces and devices, we simply stay on for the ride, even though we don’t not like it anymore.
And that is the opposite of love.